Update: Extract Alpha from Prediction Markets — and Where We’re Positioned Now

Why this report matters

We have prepared a detailed report outlining how sophisticated traders generate consistent returns in prediction markets. While these markets are often described as reflecting the “wisdom of the crowd,” in reality, it is the wisdom within the crowd that matters, a subset of informed participants who act early based on superior information or positioning.

One effective strategy is to identify and track these informed traders, then capitalize on their moves before broader repricing occurs. Beyond that, our initial report (or the series we prepared at the end of last year (here + webinar) highlighted several additional high-probability setups derived from our structured framework.

In our follow-up analysis (see January 2, 2026 report), we further detailed how this approach translated into an annualized return of 154%. About 8 to 9 days ago, we introduced two new prediction market trades (here), which have since generated returns of +4.2% and +8.0% in a short time frame. In the report below, we clarify which positions remain open, which have been closed, our updated view on each trade, and whether a new opportunity is emerging. Let’s take a closer look:

Trading Signals