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Something shifted in the last five trading days. Skew flipped in both BTC and ETH, simultaneously, not gradually, and it happened while implied vol stayed cheap relative to what's realizing. That combination rarely resolves quietly.
Spot Bitcoin is now sitting on top of a dealer positioning line that determines whether the next move gets absorbed or amplified. Inside: the exact strike where BTC's hedging regime flips, the expiry carrying the market's largest single open-interest concentration, what last week's outsized ETH call block tells us about who's actually positioning here, and the three trades we'd put on first.
Bitcoin term structure vs. 1 week ago
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