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BTC and ETH realized vol has ripped past implied, leaving convexity priced for a calm that isn't happening; ETH's IV-RV discount just hit -19.2%, the richest in our ‘10x Volatility Edge’ chart book (which includes 30 BTC and ETH options charts). Spot BTC sits inside a negative-gamma pocket that troughs near 82,000, meaning dealers will amplify the next move, not cushion it. This week: where the vol gap is widest, the two trade structures we're using to own it, and the 76,000/85,000 levels that flip the regime.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. BTC option skew (RHS) was leading the recovery
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