Newmont Goldcorp is up +23% since our Trading Signals model flagged it as a high-probability trade on July 31, 2026 (here). The gold theme has gained momentum as the anticipated repricing in Fed policy has started to play out, exactly as we projected. Track record check: this (latest) gold signal has now hit on 10 of its last 10 triggers, a 100% success rate (here, and see the report on how long this rally could last based on the backtest).

Not every signal lands on schedule, though. An earlier (non-gold) commodity call from mid-June hasn't worked out yet; prices are only marginally higher, and the move we expected still hasn't materialized.

That said, the setup is back. Our model is now flagging a fresh breakout attempt in the same name. The stock is still pinned near the top of its range, but each test of resistance raises the odds that it finally breaks, and when it does, the move could be sharp. The key difference between the mid-June signal and this latest one is duration: the earlier signal was short-term in nature, while this breakout attempt is a longer-term signal; and potentially more significant as a result. Based on historical patterns, this signal has worked 7 out of the last 10 times, with median returns of 25%.

The distinction from gold is worth noting: gold's rally came from a bounce off oversold conditions, while this setup would be a breakout from strength, often the more powerful pattern of the two.

A breakout from strength?