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10x Volatility Edge: Volatility Doubled. The Real Risk Is What Comes Next.
The crypto options market has repriced sharply higher in the past week. BTC 1-week IV surged from 30.1 to 60.7, the most dramatic short-tenor spike since early 2025, while realized volatility (41 RV) has finally caught up, compressing the IV-RV spread to just 6.2 points. Three numbers define this market right now: 60.7 (BTC 1wk IV, extreme fear-of-near-term move), -8.8% (front-week skew, historically bearish), and 1,090M (gamma at $65K, the dominant dealer hedging pin). The term structure has inverted aggressively at the front.
Volatility tells only part of the story. Two near-term catalysts loom while Bitcoin sits on precarious support, making the next trade decision critical. A new range may be opening up.
Full PDF volatility chart book with 30 charts and tables attached.
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