10x Derivatives Edge: BTC & ETH Volatility/Options Analysis

The volatility setup in BTC and ETH is unusually clean, with 1-month implied volatility sitting almost exactly at realized levels, meaning traders can own gamma with no carry penalty and express high-conviction views through short-dated BTC straddles or modestly OTM strangles around the critical $98k–$100k level.

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At the same time, ETH’s relative volatility is mispriced, with ETH-BTC implied vol trading well below realized, creating an attractive opportunity to own underpriced dispersion as macro catalysts, ETF flows, and narrative divergence push the two assets further apart.

Implied volatility began rising sharply as the U.S. government shutdown started, but it was Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China that triggered a major surge and sent crypto markets tumbling.

The November 5 selloff in AI stocks added further stress, spilling over into Bitcoin and driving volatility higher.

More recently, the rapid repricing of December rate-cut expectations has delivered yet another spike, reinforcing the current risk-off regime.

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